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Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
FT
0 – 3
Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
9/12/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler38%
×Draw23%
Freialdenhoven39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.61
Freialdenhoven
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.56
Freialdenhoven
1.75

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.53
Freialdenhoven
1.67

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par
Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Freialdenhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw
61%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Freialdenhoven
77%
Draw or Freialdenhoven
62%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
19%
Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
80%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
48%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
22%
Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
81%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
49%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
49%
Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
38%
level
23%
Freialdenhoven scores more
39%

Freialdenhoven at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Freialdenhoven

Freialdenhoven beat Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion in Düren.