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Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
FT
3 – 0
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
8/19/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler42%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Köln II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.73
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 79 away

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.56
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.53
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw
66%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Fortuna Köln II
77%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
58%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
22%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
52%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
55%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
42%
level
23%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
34%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viktoria Arnoldsweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3–0 Fortuna Köln II

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler beat Fortuna Köln II 3-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on August 19, 2021.

The match was played at Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion in Düren.