Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1–1 Bonner SC

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bonner SC

9/10/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 4Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler27%

×Draw22%

Bonner SC51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria ArnoldsweilerExpected goals in this matchBonner SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.92

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.33

Bonner SC

1.92

Bonner SC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 44 away

1.56

creates per match

2.30

1.53

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.56

Bonner SC

2.30

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.53

Bonner SC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Bonner SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw

49%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Bonner SC

78%

Draw or Bonner SC

73%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

11%

Bonner SC wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

74%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

38%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

15%

Bonner SC 1+ goals

85%

Bonner SC 2+ goals

57%

Bonner SC 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

34%

Bonner SC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

27%

level

22%

Bonner SC scores more

51%

Bonner SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff