Vikingur Reykjavik 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Vikingur Reykjavik

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Y. Dramé 33'

7/25/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundVíkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik50%

×Draw28%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.75

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.33

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.75

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 77% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

2.42

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.42

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.00

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

0.50

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw

79%

Vikingur Reykjavik or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

72%

Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

50%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

24%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

74%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

38%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

15%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

53%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

17%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

71%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.42 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.00 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

50%

level

28%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

21%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

A. Þrándarson← M. Vilhjálmsson

33'

37'

39'

64'

70'

75'

V. Andrason← V. Ingimundarson

75'

A. Sigurpálsson← P. Punyed

75'

H. Guðjónsson← D. Djuric

79'

J. Lubas← Z. Əliyev

82'

Ilir Dabjani

89'

Juozas Lubas

90+4'

Viktor Örlygur Andrason

90+9'

G. Þórðarson← E. Agnarsson

90+2'

M. Gjata← L. Doukouo

90+2'

F. Dulysse← R. Kasa

Vikingur4-3-3

Egnatia3-4-3

27

⚽

▼

Dramé

14

▼

Doukouo

82

▼

16

6

28

44

4

▼

13

19

12

1

5

6

4

22

25

▼

Ingimunda

10

▼

Punyed

27

▼

Vilhjálms

19

▼

Djuric

23

Hansen

7

▼

Agnarsson

Manager: A. Gunnlaugsson

30'▲A. Þrándarson←▼M. Vilhjálmsson

75'▲V. Andrason←▼V. Ingimundarson

75'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼P. Punyed

75'▲H. Guðjónsson←▼D. Djuric

90+9'▲G. Þórðarson←▼E. Agnarsson

Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes

21Þrándarson8Andrason17Sigurpálsson9Guðjónsson11Þórðarson12Sigurðsson80Arinbjörnsson30Jónsson24Atlason2Þorkelsson29Magnússon3Aronsson

Manager: E. Tetova

70'▲R. Lushkja←▼Y. Dramé

79'▲J. Lubas←▼Z. Əliyev

90+2'▲M. Gjata←▼L. Doukouo

90+2'▲F. Dulysse←▼R. Kasa

Egnatia Rrogozhinë substitutes

70Lushkja23Lubas29Gjata3Dulysse1Kuka2Duka24Rama

UEFA Europa Conference League: Vikingur Reykjavik 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Vikingur Reykjavik 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 25, 2024.

Goals: Y. Dramé (33').

The match was played at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík.

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League: Vikingur Reykjavik 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë