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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Cercle Brugge — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
10/24/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Kópavogsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik53%
×Draw22%
Cercle Brugge26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Reykjavik
2.01
Cercle Brugge
1.35

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik
2.42
Cercle Brugge
2.20

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik
0.50
Cercle Brugge
1.60

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw
74%
Vikingur Reykjavik or Cercle Brugge
78%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
47%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+
31%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals
87%
Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals
59%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals
32%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
74%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
39%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
67%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.42 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.01

Cercle Brugge attack 2.20 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more
53%
level
22%
Cercle Brugge scores more
26%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vikingur Reykjavik vs Cercle Brugge

Vikingur Reykjavik beat Cercle Brugge 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kópavogsvöllur in Kópavogur.