Vikingur Olafsiik 7–1 Úlfarnir: Result & Stats

Vikingur Olafsiik

7 – 1

HT: 5 – 1

Úlfarnir

4/17/2025

Cup · Round of 32Ólafsvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik76%

×Draw12%

Úlfarnir12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur OlafsiikExpected goals in this matchÚlfarnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.90

2.10

Vikingur Olafsiik

4.90

Úlfarnir

2.10

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

6.80

creates per match

2.00

2.20

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

6.80

Úlfarnir

2.00

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.20

Úlfarnir

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Úlfarnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over96
Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Úlfarnir →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–11%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 4–1 (6%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

96%4%3.5

89%11%4.5

78%22%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw

88%

Vikingur Olafsiik or Úlfarnir

88%

Draw or Úlfarnir

24%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+

60%

Úlfarnir wins by 2+

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals

99%

Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals

94%

Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals

83%

Úlfarnir 1+ goals

88%

Úlfarnir 2+ goals

62%

Úlfarnir 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)

86%

Úlfarnir (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 6.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Úlfarnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 6.80 + Úlfarnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.90

Úlfarnir attack 2.00 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more

76%

level

12%

Úlfarnir scores more

12%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff