Vikingur Olafsiik 5–1 Smári: Result & Stats | Cup

Vikingur Olafsiik

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Smári

4/9/2025

Cup · 2nd RoundÓlafsvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik83%

×Draw9%

Smári8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur OlafsiikExpected goals in this matchSmári

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.90

1.60

Vikingur Olafsiik

4.90

Smári

1.60

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 206% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

6.80

creates per match

1.00

2.20

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

6.80

Smári

1.00

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.20

Smári

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Smári+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Smári →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (7%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

94%6%3.5

86%14%4.5

71%29%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw

92%

Vikingur Olafsiik or Smári

91%

Draw or Smári

17%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+

69%

Smári wins by 2+

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals

99%

Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals

94%

Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals

83%

Smári 1+ goals

80%

Smári 2+ goals

47%

Smári 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)

92%

Smári (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 6.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Smári away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 6.80 + Smári defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.90

Smári attack 1.00 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more

83%

level

Smári scores more

Vikingur Olafsiik at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff