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Vikingur Olafsiik vs KF — 2. Deild 2018

Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KF
KF
9/3/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 20Ólafsvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik59%
×Draw19%
KF22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.50
KF
1.50

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 67% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 55 away

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.42
KF
1.53

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
1.48
KF
2.58

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par
KF+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

KF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw
78%
Vikingur Olafsiik or KF
81%
Draw or KF
41%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
38%
KF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
92%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
71%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
45%
KF 1+ goals
78%
KF 2+ goals
44%
KF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
73%
KF (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.48 · 50 matches

KF away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.58 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 2.42 + KF defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.50

KF attack 1.53 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
59%
level
19%
KF scores more
22%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vikingur Olafsiik vs KF

Vikingur Olafsiik beat KF 3-2 in 2. Deild on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Ólafsvíkurvöllur in Ólafsvik.