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Vikingur Olafsiik vs Fjolnir — 2. Deild 2025

Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
Preview
19:15
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
7/29/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 15
Big match
47%
Vikingur Olafsiik
model favours
47%20%33%

Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
77%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik47%
×Draw20%
Fjolnir33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.31
Fjolnir
1.95

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.30
Fjolnir
2.33

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
1.57
Fjolnir
2.33

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw
67%
Vikingur Olafsiik or Fjolnir
80%
Draw or Fjolnir
53%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
28%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
90%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
67%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
40%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
86%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
58%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
58%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 2.30 + Fjolnir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Fjolnir attack 2.33 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
47%
level
20%
Fjolnir scores more
33%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
  • Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Fjolnir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5.4 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Fjolnir have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Olafsiik
DLWLW
Fjolnir
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vikingur Olafsiik vs Fjolnir — Match Preview

Vikingur Olafsiik face Fjolnir on July 29, 2026 in this 2. Deild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.