Vikingur Olafsiik 4–1 Fjolnir: Result & Stats

Vikingur Olafsiik

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Fjolnir

G. Magnússon 73' (pen), 41'

I. Sorie Barrie 30'

H. Willard 7' (pen)

A. Ingason 68' (pen)

8/23/2019

1. Deild · Round 18Ólafsvíkurvöllur (Ólafsvik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik17%

×Draw16%

Fjolnir67%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur OlafsiikExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

3.00

Vikingur Olafsiik

1.50

Fjolnir

3.00

Fjolnir creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

2.00

4.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

1.33

Fjolnir

2.00

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

4.00

Fjolnir

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw

33%

Vikingur Olafsiik or Fjolnir

84%

Draw or Fjolnir

83%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+

7%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals

78%

Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals

44%

Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals

19%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

95%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

79%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)

20%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 1.33 + Fjolnir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fjolnir attack 2.00 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more

17%

level

16%

Fjolnir scores more

67%

Fjolnir at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

H. WillardPenalty

30'

I. Sorie Barrie

41'

G. Magnússon

46'

O. Thorhalsson← J. Gunnarsson

58'

J. Strom← H. Agnarsson

62'

G. Magnusson

68'

A. IngasonPenalty

72'

S. Tarawallie← G. Magnússon

73'

G. MagnússonPenalty

82'

Í. Antonsson← M. Kuittinen

86'

V. Hjálmarsson← S. Pálsson

90'

P. Jóhannsson← J. Dale

Vikingur

Fjolnir

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽2

▼

Magnússon

▼

Kuittinen

Manager: E. Purisevic

72'▲S. Tarawallie←▼G. Magnússon

82'▲Í. Antonsson←▼M. Kuittinen

90'▲P. Jóhannsson←▼J. Dale

Vikingur Olafsiik substitutes

TarawallieAntonssonJóhannssonBarkarsonHermannssonOlsenCrnac

Manager: A. Arnarsson

46'▲O. Thorhalsson←▼J. Gunnarsson

58'▲J. Strom←▼H. Agnarsson

86'▲V. Hjálmarsson←▼S. Pálsson

Fjolnir substitutes

ThorhalssonStromHjálmarssonSigurðarsonSzopaGunnarssonHafþórsson

Match Recap: Vikingur Olafsiik vs Fjolnir

Vikingur Olafsiik beat Fjolnir 4-1 in 1. Deild on August 23, 2019.

Goals: H. Willard (7' pen), I. Sorie Barrie (30'), G. Magnússon (41', 73' pen), A. Ingason (68' pen).

The match was played at Ólafsvíkurvöllur (Ólafsvik).

Vikingur Olafsiik vs Fjolnir — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vikingur Olafsiik vs Fjolnir