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Vikingur Olafsiik vs Árborg — Cup 2019

Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Árborg
Árborg
3/22/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik88%
×Draw7%
Árborg5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Olafsiik
5.20
Árborg
1.40

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 271% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
6.80
Árborg
0.60

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.20
Árborg
3.60

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par
Árborg+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Árborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 55% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw
95%
Vikingur Olafsiik or Árborg
93%
Draw or Árborg
12%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
75%
Árborg wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
99%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
95%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
85%
Árborg 1+ goals
75%
Árborg 2+ goals
41%
Árborg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
94%
Árborg (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 6.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Árborg away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 6.80 + Árborg defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 5.20

Árborg attack 0.60 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
88%
level
7%
Árborg scores more
5%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vikingur Olafsiik vs Árborg

Vikingur Olafsiik and Árborg drew 1-1 in Cup on March 22, 2026.