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Víkingur II vs Undrid — 1. Deild 2019

Víkingur II
Víkingur II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Undrid
Undrid
8/20/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 19Sarpugerði

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Víkingur II56%
×Draw20%
Undrid24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Víkingur II
2.29
Undrid
1.44

Víkingur II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 13 away

creates per match

Víkingur II
2.51
Undrid
1.46

allows per match

Víkingur II
1.41
Undrid
2.08

finishing

Víkingur II+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Víkingur II ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Víkingur II or draw
76%
Víkingur II or Undrid
80%
Draw or Undrid
44%

Winning margin

Víkingur II wins by 2+
35%
Undrid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Víkingur II 1+ goals
90%
Víkingur II 2+ goals
66%
Víkingur II 3+ goals
40%
Undrid 1+ goals
76%
Undrid 2+ goals
42%
Undrid 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Víkingur II (draw refunded)
70%
Undrid (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Víkingur II at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Undrid away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Víkingur II attack 2.51 + Undrid defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.29

Undrid attack 1.46 + Víkingur II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Víkingur II scores more
56%
level
20%
Undrid scores more
24%

Víkingur II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Víkingur II vs Undrid

Víkingur II beat Undrid 3-1 in 1. Deild on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sarpugerði in Norðragøta, Eysturoy.