Víkingur II 2–2 Skála II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Víkingur II

FT

2 – 2

Skála II

5/11/2019

1. Deild · Round 9Uppi á Brekku (Leirvík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Víkingur II57%

×Draw20%

Skála II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Víkingur IIExpected goals in this matchSkála II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.31

Víkingur II

2.19

Skála II

1.31

Víkingur II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 14 away

2.51

creates per match

1.21

1.41

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Víkingur II

2.51

Skála II

1.21

allows per match

Víkingur II

1.41

Skála II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Víkingur II+0.00on par

Skála II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Víkingur II ↓

Skála II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Víkingur II or draw

78%

Víkingur II or Skála II

80%

Draw or Skála II

43%

Winning margin

Víkingur II wins by 2+

35%

Skála II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Víkingur II 1+ goals

89%

Víkingur II 2+ goals

64%

Víkingur II 3+ goals

37%

Skála II 1+ goals

73%

Skála II 2+ goals

38%

Skála II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Víkingur II (draw refunded)

72%

Skála II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Víkingur II at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Skála II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Víkingur II attack 2.51 + Skála II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.19

Skála II attack 1.21 + Víkingur II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Víkingur II scores more

57%

level

20%

Skála II scores more

22%

Víkingur II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff