Víkingur II 2–0 07 Vestur II: Result & Stats

Víkingur II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

07 Vestur II

8/7/2022

1. Deild · Round 17Uppi á Brekku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Víkingur II71%

×Draw17%

07 Vestur II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Víkingur IIExpected goals in this match07 Vestur II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.92

Víkingur II

2.50

07 Vestur II

0.92

Víkingur II creates 172% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 28 away

2.51

creates per match

0.43

1.41

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Víkingur II

2.51

07 Vestur II

0.43

allows per match

Víkingur II

1.41

07 Vestur II

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Víkingur II+0.00on par

07 Vestur II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Víkingur II ↓

07 Vestur II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Víkingur II or draw

88%

Víkingur II or 07 Vestur II

83%

Draw or 07 Vestur II

29%

Winning margin

Víkingur II wins by 2+

49%

07 Vestur II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Víkingur II 1+ goals

92%

Víkingur II 2+ goals

71%

Víkingur II 3+ goals

45%

07 Vestur II 1+ goals

60%

07 Vestur II 2+ goals

23%

07 Vestur II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Víkingur II (draw refunded)

86%

07 Vestur II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Víkingur II at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

07 Vestur II away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Víkingur II attack 2.51 + 07 Vestur II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

07 Vestur II attack 0.43 + Víkingur II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Víkingur II scores more

71%

level

17%

07 Vestur II scores more

12%

Víkingur II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff