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Vikingur Gota vs Undrid — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Vikingur Gota
Vikingur Gotaadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Undrid
Undrid
4/14/2022LøgmanssteypidLøgmanssteypid · Round of 16Sarpugerði

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vikingur Gota59%
×Draw18%
Undrid22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Gota
2.58
Undrid
1.54

Vikingur Gota creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vikingur Gota
2.76
Undrid
2.20

allows per match

Vikingur Gota
0.88
Undrid
2.40

finishing

Vikingur Gota+0.00on par
Undrid+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Gota ↓

Undrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Vikingur Gota or draw
78%
Vikingur Gota or Undrid
82%
Draw or Undrid
41%

Winning margin

Vikingur Gota wins by 2+
39%
Undrid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vikingur Gota 1+ goals
92%
Vikingur Gota 2+ goals
72%
Vikingur Gota 3+ goals
47%
Undrid 1+ goals
79%
Undrid 2+ goals
45%
Undrid 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)
73%
Undrid (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Gota at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Undrid away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Gota attack 2.76 + Undrid defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.58

Undrid attack 2.20 + Vikingur Gota defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vikingur Gota scores more
59%
level
18%
Undrid scores more
22%

Vikingur Gota at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vikingur Gota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vikingur Gota vs Undrid

Vikingur Gota beat Undrid 4-0 in Løgmanssteypid on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sarpugerði in Norðragøta, Eysturoy.