Viking 3–3 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stabaek

Y. de Lanlay 83'

V. Berisha 48', 30' (pen)

A. Nusa 67', 26'

H. Geelmuyden 61'

6/30/2021

Eliteserien · Round 10SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Viking54%

×Draw21%

Stabaek25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.41

Viking

2.13

Stabaek

1.41

Viking creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 7 away

2.11

creates per match

1.63

1.19

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Viking

2.11

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Viking

1.19

Stabaek

2.15

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Viking+0.52scores more

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Viking or draw

75%

Viking or Stabaek

79%

Draw or Stabaek

46%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

32%

Stabaek wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

88%

Viking 2+ goals

63%

Viking 3+ goals

35%

Stabaek 1+ goals

76%

Stabaek 2+ goals

41%

Stabaek 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

68%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.11 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Viking defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viking scores more

54%

level

21%

Stabaek scores more

25%

Viking at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

V. Berisha

Viking · F

8.5

Match Events

11'

Henrik Heggheim

26'

A. Nusa↳ K. Hansen

30'

V. BerishaPenalty

39'

Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsen

48'

V. Berisha↳ H. Tangen

60'

H. Geelmuyden← K. Hansen

60'

K. Kostadinov← S. Skytte

61'

H. Geelmuyden

66'

Rolf Daniel Vikstøl

67'

A. Nusa

72'

Y. de Lanlay← S. Auklend

72'

K. Kabran← F. Torsteinbø

72'

S. Pattynama← R. Vikstøl

79'

T. Høiland← Z. Tripić

80'

F. Azemi← O. Edvardsen

83'

Y. de Lanlay

87'

Y. Amankwah← A. Nusa

90'

Samúel Kári Friðjónsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingStabaek

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots10

7Corners2

9Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots10

4On Target6

8Off Target2

12Blocked2

15Inside Box7

9Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

476Total Passes359

393Accurate Passes271

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls12

4Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Viking vs Stabaek

Viking and Stabaek drew 3-3 in Eliteserien on June 30, 2021.

Goals: A. Nusa (26', 67'), V. Berisha (30' pen, 48'), H. Geelmuyden (61'), Y. de Lanlay (83').

Viking controlled possession (58%) and registered 24 shots to 10.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.

Viking vs Stabaek — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Viking vs Stabaek