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Viking vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
5/1/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 7Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Viking50%
×Draw23%
Rosenborg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.81
Rosenborg
1.29

Viking creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Viking
1.75
Rosenborg
1.30

allows per match

Viking
1.27
Rosenborg
1.88

finishing

Viking+1.25scores more
Rosenborg-0.05on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viking or draw
73%
Viking or Rosenborg
77%
Draw or Rosenborg
50%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
27%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
84%
Viking 2+ goals
54%
Viking 3+ goals
27%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
72%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
37%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
64%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.27 · 6 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 1.75 + Rosenborg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Rosenborg attack 1.30 + Viking defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viking scores more
50%
level
23%
Rosenborg scores more
27%

Viking at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Viking 3–0 Rosenborg

Viking beat Rosenborg 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Lyse Arena in Stavanger.