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Viking vs Nest-Sotra — 1. Division 2018

Viking
Viking
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
8/5/20181. Division1. Division · Round 18SR-Bank Arena (Stavanger)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viking54%
×Draw22%
Nest-Sotra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
1.89
Nest-Sotra
1.18

Viking creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Viking
2.33
Nest-Sotra
1.23

allows per match

Viking
1.13
Nest-Sotra
1.45

finishing

Viking+0.00on par
Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Nest-Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Viking or draw
76%
Viking or Nest-Sotra
78%
Draw or Nest-Sotra
46%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
31%
Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
85%
Viking 2+ goals
56%
Viking 3+ goals
29%
Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
69%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
33%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
69%
Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.33 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viking scores more
54%
level
22%
Nest-Sotra scores more
24%

Viking at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viking vs Nest-Sotra

Nest-Sotra beat Viking 3-2 in 1. Division on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena (Stavanger).