Viking 2–0 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Viking

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kristiansund BK

S. Svendsen 67', 46'

7/13/2024

Eliteserien · Round 14SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Viking60%

×Draw21%

Kristiansund BK19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.07

Viking

2.04

Kristiansund BK

1.07

Viking creates 91% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

2.12

creates per match

0.98

1.16

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Viking

2.12

Kristiansund BK

0.98

allows per match

Viking

1.16

Kristiansund BK

1.97

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Viking+0.69scores more

Kristiansund BK-0.02on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Viking or draw

81%

Viking or Kristiansund BK

79%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

40%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

36%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

87%

Viking 2+ goals

60%

Viking 3+ goals

33%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

66%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

29%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

75%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.16 · 27 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.97 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.12 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kristiansund BK attack 0.98 + Viking defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Viking scores more

60%

level

21%

Kristiansund BK scores more

19%

Viking at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

S. Svendsen

Viking · F

8.9

Match Events

14'

H. Tangen← L. Salvesen

46'

S. Svendsen↳ P. Gunnarsson

63'

D. Tufekcic← H. Mikaelsson

63'

M. Olsen← C. Aasbak

67'

S. Svendsen↳ J. Urbančič

73'

N. Fuglestad← S. Kvia-Egeskog

73'

H. Haugen← S. Bjørshol

79'

Joe Bell

85'

Jošt Urbančič

87'

J. Hansen← P. Yazbek

87'

K. Sætherbø← S. Svendsen

88'

L. Alvheim← H. Sjåtil

88'

W. Igor← R. Alte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingKristiansund

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots8

6Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots8

7On Target1

4Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

600Total Passes382

526Accurate Passes316

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0