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Viking vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Haugesund
Haugesund
11/23/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Viking56%
×Draw21%
Haugesund22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
2.02
Haugesund
1.19

Viking creates 70% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 113 away

creates per match

Viking
2.35
Haugesund
1.08

allows per match

Viking
1.30
Haugesund
1.69

finishing

Viking+0.00on par
Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viking or draw
78%
Viking or Haugesund
79%
Draw or Haugesund
44%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
33%
Haugesund wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
87%
Viking 2+ goals
60%
Viking 3+ goals
33%
Haugesund 1+ goals
70%
Haugesund 2+ goals
33%
Haugesund 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
72%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.30 · 102 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.35 + Haugesund defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.02

Haugesund attack 1.08 + Viking defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Viking scores more
56%
level
21%
Haugesund scores more
22%

Viking at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Viking 5–1 Haugesund

Viking beat Haugesund 5-1 in Eliteserien on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at SR-Bank Arena in Stavanger.