Viking 2–0 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Viking

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Haugesund

Z. Tripić 73'

L. Salvesen 63'

7/8/2023

Eliteserien · Round 13SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Viking62%

×Draw20%

Haugesund18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VikingExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.13

Viking

2.23

Haugesund

1.13

Viking creates 97% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

2.11

creates per match

1.07

1.19

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Viking

2.11

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Viking

1.19

Haugesund

2.36

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Viking+0.52scores more

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Viking or draw

82%

Viking or Haugesund

80%

Draw or Haugesund

38%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+

39%

Haugesund wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals

89%

Viking 2+ goals

65%

Viking 3+ goals

38%

Haugesund 1+ goals

68%

Haugesund 2+ goals

31%

Haugesund 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)

77%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.11 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Viking defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Viking scores more

62%

level

20%

Haugesund scores more

18%

Viking at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Tripić

Viking · F

9.3

Match Events

46'

P. Yazbek← H. Haugen

63'

L. Salvesen↳ Z. Tripić

64'

N. Sandberg← S. Svendsen

64'

N. D'Agostino← H. Tangen

67'

O. Otusanya← M. Samuelsen

71'

S. Bjørshol← Y. de Lanlay

73'

Z. Tripić↳ N. D'Agostino

76'

S. Innvær← A. Pajaziti

89'

E. Austbö← L. Salvesen

90+1'

M. Hope← O. Krusnell

90+2'

T. Nyhammer← Bruno Leite

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VikingHaugesund

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots9

14Corners2

11Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots9

7On Target2

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

10Inside Box3

9Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

462Total Passes437

397Accurate Passes367

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

0Offsides1