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Viking vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Viking
Viking
CANC
00:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
10/2/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 24SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Viking62%
×Draw20%
Haugesund18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viking
2.23
Haugesund
1.13

Viking creates 97% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Viking
2.11
Haugesund
1.07

allows per match

Viking
1.19
Haugesund
2.36

finishing

Viking+0.52scores more
Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viking or draw
82%
Viking or Haugesund
80%
Draw or Haugesund
38%

Winning margin

Viking wins by 2+
39%
Haugesund wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Viking 1+ goals
89%
Viking 2+ goals
65%
Viking 3+ goals
38%
Haugesund 1+ goals
68%
Haugesund 2+ goals
31%
Haugesund 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Viking (draw refunded)
77%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking attack 2.11 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Viking defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Viking scores more
62%
level
20%
Haugesund scores more
18%

Viking at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viking face Haugesund (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Viking hosting Haugesund. Match starts October 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Viking host Haugesund at SR-Bank Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.