Viking U19 1–2 Odd U19: Result & Stats

Viking U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Odd U19

2/1/2025

Nasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 2Lyse Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viking U1946%

×Draw19%

Odd U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking U19Expected goals in this matchOdd U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.31

Viking U19

2.63

Odd U19

2.31

Viking U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

2.85

creates per match

3.06

1.55

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Viking U19

2.85

Odd U19

3.06

allows per match

Viking U19

1.55

Odd U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking U19+0.00on par

Odd U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking U19 ↓

Odd U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Viking U19 or draw

65%

Viking U19 or Odd U19

81%

Draw or Odd U19

54%

Winning margin

Viking U19 wins by 2+

28%

Odd U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Viking U19 1+ goals

93%

Viking U19 2+ goals

73%

Viking U19 3+ goals

48%

Odd U19 1+ goals

90%

Odd U19 2+ goals

67%

Odd U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Viking U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Odd U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking U19 at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Odd U19 away — creates 3.06, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking U19 attack 2.85 + Odd U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.63

Odd U19 attack 3.06 + Viking U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Viking U19 scores more

46%

level

19%

Odd U19 scores more

35%

Viking U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viking U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff