Viking II 2–0 Start II: Result & Stats

Viking II

FT

2 – 0

Start II

8/21/2021

3. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 3SR-Bank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Viking II51%

×Draw21%

Start II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viking IIExpected goals in this matchStart II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.48

Viking II

2.08

Start II

1.48

Viking II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

1.67

1.28

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Viking II

3.00

Start II

1.67

allows per match

Viking II

1.28

Start II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viking II+0.00on par

Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viking II ↓

Start II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Viking II or draw

73%

Viking II or Start II

79%

Draw or Start II

49%

Winning margin

Viking II wins by 2+

30%

Start II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Viking II 1+ goals

87%

Viking II 2+ goals

61%

Viking II 3+ goals

34%

Start II 1+ goals

77%

Start II 2+ goals

43%

Start II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Viking II (draw refunded)

65%

Start II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viking II at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Start II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viking II attack 3.00 + Start II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Start II attack 1.67 + Viking II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viking II scores more

51%

level

21%

Start II scores more

27%

Viking II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viking II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff