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Viken vs IF Karlstad — Svenska Cupen 2019

Viken
Viken
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
IF Karlstad
IF Karlstad
5/7/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundRösvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viken5%
×Draw11%
IF Karlstad84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viken
0.52
IF Karlstad
2.79

IF Karlstad creates 437% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Viken
0.33
IF Karlstad
2.57

allows per match

Viken
3.00
IF Karlstad
0.71

finishing

Viken+0.00on par
IF Karlstad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viken ↓

IF Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–215%
0–314%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viken or draw
16%
Viken or IF Karlstad
89%
Draw or IF Karlstad
95%

Winning margin

Viken wins by 2+
1%
IF Karlstad wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Viken 1+ goals
41%
Viken 2+ goals
10%
Viken 3+ goals
2%
IF Karlstad 1+ goals
94%
IF Karlstad 2+ goals
76%
IF Karlstad 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Viken (draw refunded)
5%
IF Karlstad (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viken at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

IF Karlstad away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viken attack 0.33 + IF Karlstad defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.52

IF Karlstad attack 2.57 + Viken defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Viken scores more
5%
level
11%
IF Karlstad scores more
84%

IF Karlstad at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "IF Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viken vs IF Karlstad

IF Karlstad beat Viken 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Rösvallen in Åmål.