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Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Unirea Ungheni — Liga II 2018

Viitorul Şelimbăr
Viitorul Şelimbăr
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
8/31/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr53%
×Draw25%
Unirea Ungheni21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.58
Unirea Ungheni
0.90

Viitorul Şelimbăr creates 76% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.55
Unirea Ungheni
0.77

allows per match

Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.02
Unirea Ungheni
1.62

finishing

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par
Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Şelimbăr ↓

Unirea Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Viitorul Şelimbăr or draw
79%
Viitorul Şelimbăr or Unirea Ungheni
75%
Draw or Unirea Ungheni
47%

Winning margin

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+
28%
Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals
79%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals
47%
Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals
21%
Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
59%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
23%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)
71%
Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Şelimbăr at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Unirea Ungheni away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 1.55 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Unirea Ungheni attack 0.77 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more
53%
level
25%
Unirea Ungheni scores more
21%

Viitorul Şelimbăr at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Viitorul Şelimbăr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Unirea Ungheni

Viitorul Şelimbăr and Unirea Ungheni drew 0-0 in Liga II on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Măgura in Cisnădie.