Viitorul Constanta 0–2 GAZ Metan Medias

Viitorul Constanta

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

GAZ Metan Medias

4/12/2021

Liga I · Round 30Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta53%

×Draw25%

GAZ Metan Medias22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viitorul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.96

Viitorul Constanta

1.65

GAZ Metan Medias

0.96

Viitorul Constanta creates 72% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 76 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

1.02

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.70

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.02

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw

78%

Viitorul Constanta or GAZ Metan Medias

75%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

47%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

29%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

81%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

49%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

23%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

62%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

25%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

71%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more

53%

level

25%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

22%

Viitorul Constanta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff