Viitorul Constanta 1–2 FC Botosani: Result & Stats

Viitorul Constanta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FC Botosani

12/15/2020

Liga I · Round 14Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta50%

×Draw25%

FC Botosani25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viitorul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchFC Botosani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.02

Viitorul Constanta

1.55

FC Botosani

1.02

Viitorul Constanta creates 52% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 157 away

1.70

creates per match

1.02

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.70

FC Botosani

1.02

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.02

FC Botosani

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

FC Botosani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

FC Botosani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw

75%

Viitorul Constanta or FC Botosani

75%

Draw or FC Botosani

50%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

25%

FC Botosani wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

79%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

46%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

20%

FC Botosani 1+ goals

64%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

27%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

67%

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + FC Botosani defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

FC Botosani attack 1.02 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more

50%

level

25%

FC Botosani scores more

25%

Viitorul Constanta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff