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Viitorul Constanta vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
5/19/2021Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Viitorul Constanta45%
×Draw27%
FC Astra Giurgiu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Constanta
1.42
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.07

Viitorul Constanta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 54 away

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.70
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.02
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw
72%
Viitorul Constanta or FC Astra Giurgiu
73%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
55%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
22%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
76%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
41%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
17%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
66%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
61%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more
45%
level
27%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
28%

Viitorul Constanta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viitorul Constanta vs FC Astra Giurgiu

Viitorul Constanta beat FC Astra Giurgiu 1-0 in Liga I on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.