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Viitorul Constanta vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2018

Viitorul Constanta
Viitorul Constanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
7/2/2020Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta53%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Bucuresti23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viitorul Constanta
1.66
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.00

Viitorul Constanta creates 66% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 138 away

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.70
Dinamo Bucuresti
0.99

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta
1.02
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.62

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par
Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw
77%
Viitorul Constanta or Dinamo Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
47%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals
81%
Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals
49%
Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)
70%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 0.99 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more
53%
level
24%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
23%

Viitorul Constanta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Viitorul Constanta 1–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

Viitorul Constanta beat Dinamo Bucuresti 1-0 in Liga I on July 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.