Viitorul Constanta 1–0 Arges Pitesti

Viitorul Constanta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arges Pitesti

5/9/2021

Liga I · Relegation Round - 7Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Viitorul Constanta50%

×Draw26%

Arges Pitesti24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viitorul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

Viitorul Constanta

1.50

Arges Pitesti

0.94

Viitorul Constanta creates 60% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 80 away

1.70

creates per match

0.86

1.02

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.70

Arges Pitesti

0.86

allows per match

Viitorul Constanta

1.02

Arges Pitesti

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viitorul Constanta ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Viitorul Constanta or draw

76%

Viitorul Constanta or Arges Pitesti

74%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

50%

Winning margin

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

25%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

78%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

44%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

19%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

61%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

24%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

68%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viitorul Constanta at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.70 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arges Pitesti attack 0.86 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viitorul Constanta scores more

50%

level

26%

Arges Pitesti scores more

24%

Viitorul Constanta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viitorul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff