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ViiPV vs Tuisku — Suomen Cup 2018

ViiPV
ViiPV
FT
0 – 3
Tuisku
Tuisku
3/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundValkeakosken Palloiluhalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ViiPV0%
×Draw1%
Tuisku98%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ViiPV
0.38
Tuisku
6.21

Tuisku creates 1534% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

ViiPV
0.00
Tuisku
3.75

allows per match

ViiPV
8.67
Tuisku
0.75

finishing

ViiPV+0.00on par
Tuisku+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ViiPV ↓

Tuisku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–25%
0–310%
0–415%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–34%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (15%) · grid covers 45% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

ViiPV or draw
2%
ViiPV or Tuisku
99%
Draw or Tuisku
100%

Winning margin

ViiPV wins by 2+
0%
Tuisku wins by 2+
94%

Team goals

ViiPV 1+ goals
32%
ViiPV 2+ goals
6%
ViiPV 3+ goals
1%
Tuisku 1+ goals
100%
Tuisku 2+ goals
97%
Tuisku 3+ goals
91%

Draw no bet

ViiPV (draw refunded)
0%
Tuisku (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ViiPV at home — creates 0.00, concedes 8.67 · 3 matches

Tuisku away — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ViiPV attack 0.00 + Tuisku defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Tuisku attack 3.75 + ViiPV defence 8.67 → ÷2 → 6.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

ViiPV scores more
0%
level
1%
Tuisku scores more
98%

Tuisku at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Tuisku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ViiPV vs Tuisku

Tuisku beat ViiPV 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Valkeakosken Palloiluhalli in Valkeakoski.