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ViiPV vs PiPo 79 — Suomen Cup 2018

ViiPV
ViiPV
FT
0 – 8
PiPo 79
PiPo 79
3/19/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ViiPV0%
×Draw1%
PiPo 7999%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ViiPV
0.50
PiPo 79
7.17

PiPo 79 creates 1334% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

ViiPV
0.00
PiPo 79
5.67

allows per match

ViiPV
8.67
PiPo 79
1.00

finishing

ViiPV+0.00on par
PiPo 79+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ViiPV ↓

PiPo 79 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–37%
0–412%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 37% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
88%12%4.5
72%28%

Double chance

ViiPV or draw
1%
ViiPV or PiPo 79
99%
Draw or PiPo 79
100%

Winning margin

ViiPV wins by 2+
0%
PiPo 79 wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

ViiPV 1+ goals
39%
ViiPV 2+ goals
9%
ViiPV 3+ goals
1%
PiPo 79 1+ goals
100%
PiPo 79 2+ goals
99%
PiPo 79 3+ goals
94%

Draw no bet

ViiPV (draw refunded)
0%
PiPo 79 (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ViiPV at home — creates 0.00, concedes 8.67 · 3 matches

PiPo 79 away — creates 5.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ViiPV attack 0.00 + PiPo 79 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

PiPo 79 attack 5.67 + ViiPV defence 8.67 → ÷2 → 7.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

ViiPV scores more
0%
level
1%
PiPo 79 scores more
99%

PiPo 79 at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "PiPo 79 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ViiPV 0 – 8 PiPo 79

PiPo 79 beat ViiPV 8-0 in Suomen Cup on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi 2 Tekonurmi in Tampere.