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Viimsi vs Tammeka — Meistriliiga 2026

Viimsi
Viimsi
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Tammeka
Tammeka
11/29/2023MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Relegation RoundSportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Viimsi25%
×Draw23%
Tammeka51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viimsi
1.17
Tammeka
1.77

Tammeka creates 51% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 127 away

creates per match

Viimsi
0.33
Tammeka
1.20

allows per match

Viimsi
2.33
Tammeka
2.00

finishing

Viimsi+0.00on par
Tammeka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viimsi ↓

Tammeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Viimsi or draw
49%
Viimsi or Tammeka
77%
Draw or Tammeka
75%

Winning margin

Viimsi wins by 2+
10%
Tammeka wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Viimsi 1+ goals
69%
Viimsi 2+ goals
33%
Viimsi 3+ goals
11%
Tammeka 1+ goals
83%
Tammeka 2+ goals
53%
Tammeka 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viimsi (draw refunded)
33%
Tammeka (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viimsi at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Tammeka away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viimsi attack 0.33 + Tammeka defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tammeka attack 1.20 + Viimsi defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viimsi scores more
25%
level
23%
Tammeka scores more
51%

Tammeka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tammeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viimsi vs Tammeka

Tammeka beat Viimsi 5-0 in Meistriliiga on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.