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Viimsi vs Tallinna Kalev II — Esiliiga A 2026

Viimsi
Viimsi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
7/28/2025Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 21Viimsi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Viimsi62%
×Draw19%
Tallinna Kalev II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viimsi
2.38
Tallinna Kalev II
1.25

Viimsi creates 90% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 55 away

creates per match

Viimsi
2.24
Tallinna Kalev II
1.53

allows per match

Viimsi
0.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.53

finishing

Viimsi+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viimsi ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viimsi or draw
81%
Viimsi or Tallinna Kalev II
81%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev II
38%

Winning margin

Viimsi wins by 2+
40%
Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Viimsi 1+ goals
91%
Viimsi 2+ goals
68%
Viimsi 3+ goals
42%
Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals
71%
Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals
36%
Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viimsi (draw refunded)
77%
Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viimsi at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viimsi attack 2.24 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.38

Tallinna Kalev II attack 1.53 + Viimsi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Viimsi scores more
62%
level
19%
Tallinna Kalev II scores more
19%

Viimsi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Viimsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Viimsi 1–0 Tallinna Kalev II

Viimsi beat Tallinna Kalev II 1-0 in Esiliiga A on July 28, 2025.

The match was played at Viimsi Staadion in Viimsi.