Viimsi 1–5 Nõmme United: Result & Stats

Viimsi

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Nõmme United

2/20/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Viimsi39%

×Draw19%

Nõmme United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViimsiExpected goals in this matchNõmme United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

2.62

Viimsi

2.50

Nõmme United

2.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.83

2.40

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Viimsi

2.00

Nõmme United

2.83

allows per match

Viimsi

2.40

Nõmme United

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viimsi+0.00on par

Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viimsi ↓

Nõmme United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Viimsi or draw

57%

Viimsi or Nõmme United

81%

Draw or Nõmme United

61%

Winning margin

Viimsi wins by 2+

22%

Nõmme United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Viimsi 1+ goals

92%

Viimsi 2+ goals

71%

Viimsi 3+ goals

45%

Nõmme United 1+ goals

93%

Nõmme United 2+ goals

73%

Nõmme United 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Viimsi (draw refunded)

48%

Nõmme United (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viimsi at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 2.83, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viimsi attack 2.00 + Nõmme United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Nõmme United attack 2.83 + Viimsi defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viimsi scores more

39%

level

19%

Nõmme United scores more

43%

Nõmme United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Viimsi

Nõmme

30

5

7

20

22

27

38

43

61

67

99

71

2

6

23

13

26

10

45

19

16

20

Viimsi substitutes

91Ortega25Leppik49Beglarishvili55Chanda58Medvedev66Palu

Nõmme United substitutes

1Vigla3Jalle6Lode8Kaljuvere10Krimm18Fofana33Kane42Magi65Strus66Laur96Kollist

Friendlies Clubs: Viimsi 1–5 Nõmme United

Nõmme United beat Viimsi 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 20, 2026.

Viimsi vs Nõmme United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Viimsi 1–5 Nõmme United