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Viimsi vs Laagri — Esiliiga A 2026

Viimsi
Viimsi
FT
4 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Laagri
Laagri
7/20/2024Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 19Viimsi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viimsi40%
×Draw22%
Laagri38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viimsi
1.89
Laagri
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Viimsi
2.24
Laagri
2.72

allows per match

Viimsi
0.97
Laagri
1.53

finishing

Viimsi+0.00on par
Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viimsi ↓

Laagri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Viimsi or draw
62%
Viimsi or Laagri
78%
Draw or Laagri
60%

Winning margin

Viimsi wins by 2+
21%
Laagri wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Viimsi 1+ goals
85%
Viimsi 2+ goals
56%
Viimsi 3+ goals
29%
Laagri 1+ goals
84%
Laagri 2+ goals
55%
Laagri 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Viimsi (draw refunded)
51%
Laagri (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viimsi at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Laagri away — creates 2.72, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viimsi attack 2.24 + Laagri defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.89

Laagri attack 2.72 + Viimsi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viimsi scores more
40%
level
22%
Laagri scores more
38%

Viimsi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viimsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viimsi 4 – 4 Laagri

Viimsi and Laagri drew 4-4 in Esiliiga A on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Viimsi Staadion in Haabneeme.