Viikingit 3–2 JIPPO: Result & Stats

Viikingit

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

JIPPO

6/20/2018

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Round 10Vuosaaren Urheilukenttä (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Viikingit33%

×Draw25%

JIPPO42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViikingitExpected goals in this matchJIPPO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.54

Viikingit

1.34

JIPPO

1.54

JIPPO creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 44 away

1.73

creates per match

1.77

1.32

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Viikingit

1.73

JIPPO

1.77

allows per match

Viikingit

1.32

JIPPO

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viikingit+0.00on par

JIPPO+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viikingit ↓

JIPPO →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Viikingit or draw

58%

Viikingit or JIPPO

75%

Draw or JIPPO

67%

Winning margin

Viikingit wins by 2+

15%

JIPPO wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Viikingit 1+ goals

74%

Viikingit 2+ goals

39%

Viikingit 3+ goals

15%

JIPPO 1+ goals

79%

JIPPO 2+ goals

45%

JIPPO 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Viikingit (draw refunded)

44%

JIPPO (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viikingit at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

JIPPO away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viikingit attack 1.73 + JIPPO defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.34

JIPPO attack 1.77 + Viikingit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viikingit scores more

33%

level

25%

JIPPO scores more

42%

JIPPO at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff