Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Viikingit vs JäPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Viikingit
Viikingit
FT
1 – 1
JäPS
JäPS
8/10/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 15Vuosaaren Urheilukenttä (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Viikingit35%
×Draw22%
JäPS42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viikingit
1.66
JäPS
1.83

JäPS creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

creates per match

Viikingit
1.73
JäPS
2.33

allows per match

Viikingit
1.32
JäPS
1.58

finishing

Viikingit+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viikingit ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viikingit or draw
58%
Viikingit or JäPS
78%
Draw or JäPS
65%

Winning margin

Viikingit wins by 2+
18%
JäPS wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Viikingit 1+ goals
81%
Viikingit 2+ goals
49%
Viikingit 3+ goals
23%
JäPS 1+ goals
84%
JäPS 2+ goals
54%
JäPS 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Viikingit (draw refunded)
46%
JäPS (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viikingit at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

JäPS away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viikingit attack 1.73 + JäPS defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

JäPS attack 2.33 + Viikingit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viikingit scores more
35%
level
22%
JäPS scores more
42%

JäPS at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viikingit vs JäPS

Viikingit and JäPS drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Vuosaaren Urheilukenttä (Helsinki).