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Vihren vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
3/9/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 24Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Vihren57%
×Draw23%
Septemvri Simitli20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.78
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

Vihren creates 85% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 94 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
80%
Vihren or Septemvri Simitli
77%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
43%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
32%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
83%
Vihren 2+ goals
53%
Vihren 3+ goals
26%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
62%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
25%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
74%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vihren scores more
57%
level
23%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
20%

Vihren at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihren vs Septemvri Simitli

Vihren beat Septemvri Simitli 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.