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Vihren vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
11/23/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Vihren57%
×Draw23%
Pirin Razlog20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.83
Pirin Razlog
0.97

Vihren creates 89% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 131 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
80%
Vihren or Pirin Razlog
77%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
43%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
33%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
84%
Vihren 2+ goals
54%
Vihren 3+ goals
28%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
62%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
25%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
74%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vihren scores more
57%
level
23%
Pirin Razlog scores more
20%

Vihren at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihren vs Pirin Razlog

Vihren beat Pirin Razlog 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.