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Vihren vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
8/17/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Vihren67%
×Draw20%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
2.07
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.79

Vihren creates 162% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 37 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
87%
Vihren or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
80%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
33%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
42%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
87%
Vihren 2+ goals
61%
Vihren 3+ goals
34%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
55%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
19%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
83%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.07

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vihren scores more
67%
level
20%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
13%

Vihren at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Vihren 3–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Vihren beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.