Vihren 2–1 Perun Kresna: Result & Stats

Vihren

FT

2 – 1

Perun Kresna

8/22/2020

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 3Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vihren72%

×Draw17%

Perun Kresna11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VihrenExpected goals in this matchPerun Kresna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.77

Vihren

2.33

Perun Kresna

0.77

Vihren creates 203% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 26 away

2.09

creates per match

0.58

0.96

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Vihren

2.09

Perun Kresna

0.58

allows per match

Vihren

0.96

Perun Kresna

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par

Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Perun Kresna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vihren or draw

89%

Vihren or Perun Kresna

83%

Draw or Perun Kresna

28%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+

49%

Perun Kresna wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals

90%

Vihren 2+ goals

67%

Vihren 3+ goals

41%

Perun Kresna 1+ goals

54%

Perun Kresna 2+ goals

18%

Perun Kresna 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)

87%

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vihren scores more

72%

level

17%

Perun Kresna scores more

11%

Vihren at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff