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Vihren vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
3 – 1
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
10/3/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 9Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vihren80%
×Draw13%
Levski Chepintsi7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
2.93
Levski Chepintsi
0.78

Vihren creates 276% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 36 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
93%
Vihren or Levski Chepintsi
87%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
20%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
60%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
94%
Vihren 2+ goals
78%
Vihren 3+ goals
55%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
54%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
18%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
92%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.93

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Vihren scores more
80%
level
13%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
7%

Vihren at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vihren 3 – 1 Levski Chepintsi

Vihren beat Levski Chepintsi 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.