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Vihren vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
5/25/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 36Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Vihren63%
×Draw22%
Hebar II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.85
Hebar II
0.76

Vihren creates 143% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 38 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
85%
Vihren or Hebar II
78%
Draw or Hebar II
37%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
37%
Hebar II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
84%
Vihren 2+ goals
55%
Vihren 3+ goals
28%
Hebar II 1+ goals
53%
Hebar II 2+ goals
18%
Hebar II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
81%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vihren scores more
63%
level
22%
Hebar II scores more
15%

Vihren at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihren vs Hebar II

Vihren beat Hebar II 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.