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Vihren vs Hebar 1918 — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
1 – 2
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
4/13/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 27Stadion Spartak (Sandanski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vihren36%
×Draw26%
Hebar 191838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.31
Hebar 1918
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.10
Hebar 1918
1.76

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
Hebar 1918
0.53

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
62%
Vihren or Hebar 1918
74%
Draw or Hebar 1918
64%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
16%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
73%
Vihren 2+ goals
38%
Vihren 3+ goals
14%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
74%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
39%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
48%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.10 + Hebar 1918 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hebar 1918 attack 1.76 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vihren scores more
36%
level
26%
Hebar 1918 scores more
38%

Hebar 1918 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vihren vs Hebar 1918

Hebar 1918 beat Vihren 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Sandanski).