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Vihren vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
CANC
00:00
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
3/21/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 23Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vihren43%
×Draw25%
FK Minyor Pernik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.49
FK Minyor Pernik
1.23

Vihren creates 21% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
69%
Vihren or FK Minyor Pernik
75%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
57%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
21%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
77%
Vihren 2+ goals
44%
Vihren 3+ goals
19%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
71%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
35%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
58%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.49

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vihren scores more
43%
level
25%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
31%

Vihren at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vihren face FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with Vihren hosting FK Minyor Pernik. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vihren host FK Minyor Pernik at Stadion Spartak.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.