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Vihren vs CSKA Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vihren
Vihren
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
9/2/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 6Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vihren50%
×Draw24%
CSKA Sofia II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihren
1.76
CSKA Sofia II
1.20

Vihren creates 47% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 34 away

creates per match

Vihren
2.09
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

allows per match

Vihren
0.96
CSKA Sofia II
1.44

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vihren or draw
74%
Vihren or CSKA Sofia II
76%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
50%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+
28%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals
83%
Vihren 2+ goals
52%
Vihren 3+ goals
26%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
70%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
34%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)
66%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vihren scores more
50%
level
24%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
26%

Vihren at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Vihren 1–1 CSKA Sofia II

Vihren and CSKA Sofia II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Sandanski.