Vihren 1–0 CSKA 1948 Sofia III: Result & Stats

Vihren

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

11/3/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadion Mikrevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vihren57%

×Draw22%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VihrenExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.08

Vihren

1.94

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.08

Vihren creates 80% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

2.09

creates per match

1.21

0.96

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Vihren

2.09

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

allows per match

Vihren

0.96

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihren+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihren ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vihren or draw

79%

Vihren or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

78%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

43%

Winning margin

Vihren wins by 2+

34%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vihren 1+ goals

86%

Vihren 2+ goals

58%

Vihren 3+ goals

30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

66%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vihren (draw refunded)

73%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihren at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihren attack 2.09 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.94

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Vihren defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vihren scores more

57%

level

22%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

21%

Vihren at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vihren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff