Vihiga United 2–1 MCF: Result & Stats

Vihiga United

FT

2 – 1

MCF

10/1/2023

Super League · Round 3Mumias Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Vihiga United36%

×Draw28%

MCF36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihiga UnitedExpected goals in this matchMCF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.17

Vihiga United

1.18

MCF

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 90 away

1.14

creates per match

0.88

1.46

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Vihiga United

1.14

MCF

0.88

allows per match

Vihiga United

1.46

MCF

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihiga United+0.00on par

MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihiga United ↓

MCF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vihiga United or draw

64%

Vihiga United or MCF

72%

Draw or MCF

64%

Winning margin

Vihiga United wins by 2+

15%

MCF wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vihiga United 1+ goals

69%

Vihiga United 2+ goals

33%

Vihiga United 3+ goals

12%

MCF 1+ goals

69%

MCF 2+ goals

33%

MCF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vihiga United (draw refunded)

50%

MCF (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihiga United at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihiga United attack 1.14 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

MCF attack 0.88 + Vihiga United defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vihiga United scores more

36%

level

28%

MCF scores more

36%

Vihiga United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vihiga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff